Here’s this week’s previews for the European and PGA Tour events
Trophee Hassan
Outright
0.1u ew George Coetzee @ 71.0 (Bet365)
0.1u ew Fredrik Andersson-Hed @ 81.0 (General)
If ever one needed a sign to avoid lower grade European Tour events, Sunday provided it, when a string of outsiders took turns at exchanging the lead. In the end, Paul Lawrie did it well enough, but how anyone could have picked the former Open champ out at the start of the week is beyond me.
Consequently, there is a huge temptation to avoid this even trickier event alone altogether. The Hassan Trophy moves to a new venue for which we have no previous form, and frankly it would be hard to restrict calculations to 50 players. Nevertheless, I do have a sneaky feeling for a couple of outsiders who should like the easy pro-am conditions.
Both GEORGE COETZEE and FREDRIK ANDERSSON HED were recommended for the top-ten last week and failed to deliver, though given their wider birdie-machine profiles, I’m giving them another chance. Coetzee is a four-time winner in South Africa, and ranks first in birdie average amongst this lot over the past year. He’s an improving player, and hit three good rounds last week to follow on from a respectable 13th in Sicily.
As for Andersson-Hed, he won another birdie-fest on last year’s tour and hit seven top-tens, often in good company. His main skill is putting, and ranks fourth in
those aforementioned birdie average figures.
Shell Houston Open
Though recent results on the PGA Tour have been something of a mixed bag, I do feel we’re knocking on the door. In addition to recent winners Luke Donald and Nick Watney, Justin Rose, Spencer Levin and Rickie Fowler all held good chances over the past fortnight, only to blow it with poor final rounds. Such are the trials and tribulations of golf betting.
So far from dwelling on a couple of disappointing Sundays, I’m quite confident about the next fortnight. In nine days of course we have the Masters, and beforehand there’s the tournament now widely known as the ultimate Masters warm-up. The Houston Open was already a fairly big tournament in it’s own right, but has taken on great significance since moving to Redstone and this slot. Besides offering a good form guide for the season’s opening major, Redstone shares plenty of characteristics with Augusta – length, width off the tee and most importantly, super-fast greens.
Outright
0.5u ew Steve Stricker @ 21.0 (General)
0.3u ew JB Holmes @ 36.0 (Bet365, Bluesq)
0.3u ew Retief Goosen @ 41.0 (Sportingbet)
0.25u ew Stuart Appleby @ 51.0 (Stan James)
0.25u ew Jason Day @ 51.0 (Coral, Bodog)
0.1u ew Robert Garrigus @ 151.0 (Coral)
After much deliberation about different permutations of the market leaders, my only pick from the first five in the betting is STEVE STRICKER. Before I get to him, a few words about the other four. Lee Westwood really caught the eye with an improved weekend last time at Doral, and strikes me as coming into form at exactly the right time for the Masters. He’s finished eighth and 11th in the last two renewals here, and looks a very likely contender again. The problem, as is so often the case, is his 15.0 price tag. Lee just doesn’t win often enough these days to justify that, nor does a failure to register any top-tens yet this year, irrespective of any under-the-radar improvement.
Hunter Mahan was another shortlisted, after three top-11s here and a host of good efforts this year. Again though, 19.0 is hardly exciting, especially considering how dodgy he’s looked in contention recently. Nevertheless, Hunter might well be a pick next week depending on developments at Redstone. Matt Kuchar is also on my Augusta shortlist, and deserves favouritism here given his remarkable consistency and ideal scrambling skills for this track.
Long-term readers will be astonished to learn that I gave Phil Mickelson a serious look this week, because he really should be tailor-made for this track and at 19.0, might at last be drifting to backable prices. Given the nature of this Augusta replica, Mickelson’s Redstone record is strangely ordinary, with 23rd his best from three attempts. I suspect, however, that his focus was elsewhere on those occasions, planning for the looming major. Now he badly needs a win and confidence boost ahead of his Masters title defence, we might see an improvement.
Nevertheless, its impossible to justify backing Mickelson on recent form so preference is for the generally much more reliable Stricker. The reason these big-names usually do so well here is the extra emphasis on scrambling and putting, just as we’ll see next week. It is expertise in these areas that has brought Stricker back from oblivion to a regular spot in the world’s top-ten, as illustrated by three top-11s in the last four years.
RETIEF GOOSEN is another whose experienced skills around the greens could suit Redstone. This will be Goosen’s course debut, but we know from his Augusta exploits that he likes this type of layout. Though generally past his best and unreliable, Retief remains pretty consistent in the States, registering more top-tens on last year’s PGA Tour than anyone bar Kuchar. He’s not necessarily one for the biggest prizes anymore, but worth chancing at attractive odds in a standard event.
Very big-hitters have a great record here, thanks to the shortage of penalties off the tee. I’m going for two such characters, at rather different ends of the market. JB HOLMES was runner-up on his most recent visit in 2009, and has some reasonable 2011 figures, making every cut, registering three top-15s and reaching the World Matchplay quarter-finals. Another high finish looks probable.
And while he hasn’t done anything since the season opener, ROBERT GARRIGUS has scope as an outside bet at 151.0. Extreme inconsistency is Garrigus’ nature, and similar runs of missed cuts didn’t stop him winning and blowing another event from an impossible position in 2010. He was fifth here in 2007, and is a better player now.
One notable difference between Redstone and Augusta is the fate of Australians. Whereas they have an atrocious historical and recent record in the Masters, Australia has provided two out of five Redstone champions. 2006 winner STUART APPLEBY was also runner-up the following year. Apples is particularly well suited to fast greens, and is the only Aussie even on my radar for next week. His last couple of poor results came on less than ideal layouts, and previously he’d been solid, with three consecutive top-15s.
Finally, I couldn’t let this event pass without backing one of my players to follow in 2011, JASON DAY. His last couple of performances have been disappointing, but Day has too much talent to write off so quickly. This course should be ideal, with the emphasis on length, and interestingly he finished eighth in 2008 on one of his earliest PGA Tour starts. Jason’s sole PGA Tour title to date also came in Texas.
